Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Decoupling from US market

Analysts in emerging markets such as China and India have been claiming that their markets and economy is decoupled from US. But is it for real or to encourage investors? For the fact US being the biggest consumer of Technology, capital goods, oil, FMCG, etc and emerging markets revenue generation focussed around 60-70% from them, do you think emerging markets are decoupled from US.

US has moved to edge of recession, which many business leaders like Warren Buffet have already mentioned, has pulled down the markets worldwide. For example, within a span of 2 weeks, India and China stock market have lost around 10% points on their stock market index. The guidance from the index companies has not been good for FY 2008. The rising inflation has been the main cause though, has any one taken initiative to find the root cause for the rise in inflation. US financial market has been doomed by Sub-prime crisis, latest victim to come public is Fannie Mae and Freddie. US sub-prime crime crisis had rippling effect across the globe, and is there going to be one more such crisis called "credit card" write-off, which is estimated to be $970 Billion. There has been increase in the credit defaulters in US due to jobless and economy downturn, in which case every indutry who have been liberal in offering loans to woo customers will face the heat.

We need to wait how the business leaders and politicos act on issues like rising oil price, inflation and financial risks so that common public like me dont have to spend more to have a decent living.